El presidente menos popular

En la víspera del sexto informe de Enrique Peña Nieto, el periodista político Ricardo Raphael de la Madrid pasó revista en el programa “Así las Cosas” de W Radio a las cinco fotos que completan la historia de la (im) popularidad del Presidente. Porque esa popularidad o la falta de ella, es lo que califica a EPN al final de su sexenio.

Hubo seguramente otros presidentes con menos popularidad que Peña Nieto, probablemente Victoriano Huerta, se mofa Raphael (cuyo apellido materno evoca sus orígenes colimenses: es hijo de doña Alicia, la hermana del presidente Miguel de la Madrid Hurtado), pero no hay en la historia mexicana, “desde que levantamos encuestas”, ningún presidente que haya terminado su mandato con menos del 20% de aprobación.

Y lo notable es que Peña Nieto arrancó ¡con un 60% de aprobación! Seis de cada diez mexicanos le dijeron: “Vamos a jugárnosla con usted”. No muy lejos por cierto de como está arrancando López Obrador. “Capitalito político tenía”, apunta el articulista de El Universal (diario donde fue subdirector), autor de varios libros, conductor de programas en Canal 11 y ADN Noticias, docente en el CIDE y director general del Centro Cultural Universitario Tlatelolco (UNAM).

Los cinco momentos de Peña

“Y sí, llama la atención” cómo fue perdiendo ese capital político en una serie de momentos fatídicos que recientemente ha estado combatiendo con una campaña de autopromoción, con base en spots y entrevistas.

Ricardo Raphael se remonta a un momento intermedio, en el que podíamos ubicar el capital político real de EPN: cuando se logra el Pacto por México. Aunque ya había cierto nivel de desgaste, ese acuerdo con las fuerzas de oposición lo coloca, en el pico de la Reforma Educativa (enero-febrero de 2013), en un 55% de aprobación. “¡Magnífico!”

Ayotzinapa, se ha insistido, “es el momento de quiebre en la caída de su popularidad”. Entre septiembre y noviembre de 2014, Peña Nieto llega a 46% de aprobación debido a ese episodio. ¡Cayó 10 puntos!

Le pega más duramente el episodio de la Casa Blanca, otro caso por el que estuvo pidiendo perdón en la gira de medios previa a la entrega de su última informe: cayó 15 puntos en su popularidad y no se recuperó.

Pero seguía siendo un momento relativamente alto. En realidad la pérdida total de su capital político se da con la visita de Donald Trump: EPN cayó debajo de los 20 puntos y ya no se levantaría.

Esos son los cuatro momentos que le hicieron perder la aprobación popular. El quinto, lo que para Ricardo Raphael es el prólogo del sexenio, es el acto en la Universidad Iberoamericana donde surgió el movimiento #YoSoy132: ahí está “el germen de todos los problemas” de imagen para el Presidente.

“Si uno revisa qué ocurrió, cómo lo resolvió y de qué lo criticaron, vamos a encontrar por qué esos otros cuatro momentos lo que hicieron fue reforzar” la mala imagen que surgió en el episodio de la Ibero, apunta Raphael.

Para su entrevistadora, Gabriela Warkentin, que como académica de la Ibero estuvo presente ese día, el movimiento #YoSoy131 y, luego, el 132 dejaron los sedimentos narrativos del gobierno de Peña que irían activándose conforme sucedieron otras cosas.

Movimiento contra la posverdad

En su conversación con Warkentin y Javier Risco, Ricardo Raphael apunta que el 132 pasará a la historia como el primer movimiento contra la posverdad.

Los estudiantes que estaban en la conferencia del candidato presidencial del PRI en 2012, estaban esperando que el ex obernador del estado de México explicara los hechos ocurridos en San Salvador Atenco, y les molestó que Peña respondiera con ocultamiento y soberbia.

Warkentin recuerda que, cuando le preguntan sobre la cuestión, Peña que ya se iba regresa al presídium, toma el micrófono y responde que él ordenó el despliegue policiaco y no se arrepiente. “Ahí surge el rugido”, acusándolo de asesino.

Raphael retoma la narración y comenta que si había sospechas del compromiso de Peña con los derechos humanos, en un momento en que el tema era relevante porque las víctimas de violaciones a estos derechos se habían triplicado con el gobierno de Felipe Calderón, esa soberbia de “lo volvería a hacer” genera una confrontación muy seria con los jóvenes.

Después, frente a la soberbia ocurre la complicidad de los medios para que el episodio no sea exhibido en espacios tradicionales como los de la televisión. Se conoce de políticos muy importantes que intentaron y lograron ocultar el hecho. Fue entonces que los jóvenes salen a la calle y dicen ¡basta! “Es el primer movimiento contra la posverdad”, insiste Raphael, cuando los estudiantes dicen: “A mí no me van a ocultar los hechos, lo de la Ibero ocurrió y hay que enfrentarlo”.

#Yosoy132 y sumando

Para Ricardo Raphael, Ayotzinapa es un hecho de violación de derechos humanos gravísimo por parte del Estado mexicano. “El que me diga que la policía municipal de Iguala no es el Estado mexicano, que explique con qué dinero se paga si no es con el que los contribuyentes le pagan al Estado. Pero, además, hay pruebas de que estuvieron la policía estatal y la federal, y a mí todavía no me convencen que el Ejército no estuvo”.

Amén de que la desaparición de 43 muchachos es gravísima e indudable, está el ocultamiento: que los cremaron, que fue en Cocula, que la verdad histórica, que “ya me cansé”.

#YoSoy132 y Ayotzinapa son dos eventos clave. El primero enfureció a unos cuantos, en comparación con la población del país, pero en Ayotzinapa volvimos a ver los mismos argumentos que exhiben al personaje tal cual es, en un intento desesperado de arrogancia, de negación de los hechos y de inventarse una verdad que no fue la que los hechos revelaron. Según el autor de Manual de Investigación 3.0. Periodismo urgente (Ariel, 2017), cómo responde Peña, la forma en que trató esos problemas, lo definen.

Uno jamás deja el barrio

En la entrevista, Gabriela Warkentin subraya los errores graves de comunicación que ha cometido el presidente Peña, como cuando le preguntan de qué se arrepiente y él dice que sólo de haber involucrado a su esposa en lo de la Casa Blanca.

Para Ricardo Raphael, el contenido de los spots y las entrevistas que dio en el marco de su sexto informe, remite a una frase que se repite en Tepito: “Uno jamás deja el barrio”. En todo caso el barrio te deja. Y Peña se ha comportado igualito desde la Ibero y Ayotzinapa.

No es que cambió su estrategia de comunicación, esa es su forma de comunicar, la tiene pegada a la piel. Frente a un problema reacciona una y otra vez haciendo lo mismo: con arrogancia y ocultamiento.

Y en efecto, pidiendo disculpas. Pero de qué. Se disculpa de haber hecho un spot fatal para la mujer (dice que ella no debió haber salido a explicar), no de haberla involucrado en el asunto financiero de la Casa Blanca. Tiene razón, qué momento más ingrato el que un marido le haya deparado a su mujer. Pero de eso que le pida disculpas a Angélica Rivera, y no que use los recursos del erario para convertir la disculpa en parte de una estrategia para mejorar su imagen, sugiere.

En una siguiente entrega, desglosaremos lo que dijo Ricardo Raphael de la Madrid en la entrevista con Así las Cosas respecto al impacto que tuvo para su deteriorada imagen la afrenta al nacionalismo que implicó la visita a nuestro país del candidato republicano Donald Trump.

Mi correo electrónico: carvajalberber@gmail.com

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