Los primeros días del mes de mayo fueron un momento decisivo en esta elección por la gubernatura del estado. Un análisis del promedio de encuestas reflejó un panorama con Indira Vizcaíno a la cabeza, con una intención de voto de 33.4%, seguida de Mely Romero con 23.6%, de Leoncio Morán con 20.5% y de Virgilio Mendoza con 11.8%. La diferencia entre Indira y Mely, en ese momento, era de 9.8 puntos porcentuales, equivalentes a 32 mil votos, una diferencia verdaderamente importante. Con estos datos, si la elección hubiese concluido en la primera semana de mayo, Indira Vizcaíno sería hoy la nueva gobernadora, en un triunfo holgado.
Para fortuna de Mely, Leoncio y Virgilio, la campaña no terminó la primera semana de mayo y estamos llegando ya a los últimos días del mes, que quizá puedan considerarse un preludio de lo que sucederá realmente el 6 de junio con la votación. ¿Cómo llegan los candidatos?¿Qué dicen las encuestas? Un promedio al finalizar mayo, de las mismas encuestas revisadas al iniciar el mes, indica que Indira Vizcaíno sigue a la cabeza de la elección con una intención de voto de 36.2%, seguida de Mely con 28.3%, de Leoncio Morán con 18.6% y de Virgilio Mendoza con 9.6%.
Es un escenario con cambios. Primero, Indira no sólo mantiene su intención de voto, sino crece 2.8 puntos porcentuales. Segundo, Mely se consolidó ya en segundo lugar, lejos de Leoncio y, además, es la candidata con más crecimiento al sumar 4.7 puntos porcentuales a su intención de voto. Con esto, podría decirse que, efectivamente como ha llegado a afirmar el equipo de campaña de Mely, la elección está quedando verdaderamente entre dos mujeres, Indira y Mely, dicho ya con datos.Tercero, Leoncio Morán puede ya despedirse de esta elección.
Tan sólo en el mes de mayo perdió 1.9 puntos porcentuales y se encuentra a una distancia de 9.7 puntos porcentuales respecto de Mely Romero. El caso de Virgilio es muy relevante, pues ha caído enla intención de voto, la que era de 11.8% al iniciar mayo y es de 9.6% al finalizar el mismo mes, disminuyendo 2.2 puntos porcentuales. En resumen, Indira se mantiene y se consolida en primero, Mely se mantiene y se consolida en segundo, un poco más cerca de Indira, así como Leoncio y Virgilio se caen. Con esto, la segunda pregunta más importante en este momento es: ¿qué tan lejos está Mely de Indira?
El promedio de encuestas de la última semana de mayo indica que Mely Romero está a 7.9 puntos porcentuales de distancia de Indira Vizcaíno. En términos absolutos, esto equivale a 26 mil votos. Al día que se escribe este artículo, quedan siete días de campaña y 11 días para la votación. La pregunta más importante en este momento es: ¿Mely podrá alcanzar a Indira, a tal grado que la elección se cierre a una mínima diferencia entre una y otra, que podría ser de mil votos?La respuesta a esa pregunta es que se trata de un escenario posible, pero improbable.
Veámoslo con datos. En un primer escenario de análisis, con Mely creciendo en la misma tendencia observada durante el mes de mayo, para las casi dos semanas que quedan y considerando su punto máximo de crecimiento,podría cosechar 2.4 puntos porcentuales adicionales a los que ya tiene. Si a este escenario le agregamos que Indira no crece,pero conserva su intención de voto actual, Mely llegaríaal 6 de junio con una intención de voto de 30.7%. Esto significa que con Mely creciendo e Indira conservando su nivel actual de 36.2%, la distancia entre ambas quedaríaen 5.5 puntos porcentuales, es decir, 18,100 votos.
En un segundo escenario de análisis, mucho más adverso para Indira Vizcaíno y más benéfico para Mely Romero, en el que mientras Mely crece 2.4 puntos porcentuales en los once días que quedan para la votación e Indira disminuye su intención de voto en la misma proporción, Mely llegaría a la elección con 30.7% e Indira con 33.8%, es decir, una diferenciade 3.1 puntos porcentuales, que en términos absolutos serían 10,205 votos. Aun así, con Mely creciendo e Indira disminuyendo, se observaría una importante diferencia de alrededor de 10 mil votos.
Ahora bien, ¿qué tendría que suceder para que este resultado fuese distinto? En primer lugar, que Indira Vizcaíno disminuya drásticamente en la intención de voto de los colimenses. Sin embargo, en el desempeño de su campaña y de este proceso electoral, si algo ha mostrado esa candidata, es estabilidad y consistencia en el tiempo. Segundo, que el voto anti Morena se acumule bajo el cobijo de la candidatura de Mely Romero y le haga crecer en la intención de voto, en una medida desproporcionadamente mayor. No obstante, este es un comportamiento no observado en toda la campaña.
Tercero, que Leoncio Morán o Virgilio Mendoza, o ambos, declinaran sus aspiraciones y dejaran sueltos sus votantes o, en su caso, establecerían un acuerdo de facto con Mely Romero, para apoyarle en esta última recta de campaña. Pero, tanto Leoncio como Virgilio, han dejado constancia mediante sus afirmaciones, de que su campaña llegará hasta el final, sin importar las circunstancias o las condiciones que plantea el mismo proceso. Eso es indicativo de que no solamente conservarán su status de candidatos por la gubernatura, sino que apretarán sus acciones en los últimos días.
Dicho todo lo anterior, podríamos estar en la antesala, sustentados con datos, de un cambio de partido político en el gobierno estatal, siendo la primera vez que en Casa de Gobierno despache un titular que no sea priista. La moneda está en el aire, sólo el 6 de junio podremos saber, con total certeza, de qué lado cae. En este artículo dejo constancia de que, a partir de los datos disponibles, la probabilidad favorece que la moneda toque el suelo mostrando una cara guinda.
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