ENCUESTAS DE PROPAGANDA

Carvajal, Ojo de Mar

En su ‘tradicional mesa de encuestadores’, Leo Zuckerman conversó en el espacio de ‘Es la hora de opinar’ en Foro TV, el martes 20 de abril de 2021 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SvFEICyQyQ&t=1023s), con los titulares de tres casas demoscópicas ‘que sí han publicado encuestas en vivienda’, las ‘más serias’ y ‘metodológicamente más sólidas’: Jorge Buendía (de Buendía & Márquez), Francisco Abundis (de Parametría) y Ulises Beltrán (de la firma BGC).
Antes de responder a la pregunta de cómo van las preferencias, los encuestólogos opinaron sobre las razones por las cuales, en esta coyuntura electoral donde ‘hay tanto en juego’, ha habido pocas encuestas en opinión de Zuckerman, quien durante una semana dedicó los paneles y entrevistas de su programa a desmenuzar el tema del voto útil.
“Encuestas hay muchísimas, hay más que nunca –desmiente Francisco Abundis–, lo que pasa es que no son públicas”. Las encargan los partidos y los candidatos, sobre todo quienes contienden en los procesos locales de esta la elección más grande de la historia, “donde tienes 15 gubernaturas, casi dos mil alcaldías, 30 congresos locales y la Cámara de Diputados”.
Por cierto, para Abundis la gran ironía de esta elección es que lo más importante en términos de gobernabilidad, la conformación de la cámara baja, sea lo menos visible para el elector.
“Mediciones hay muchísimas. Sin embargo, hacer una buena es relativamente cara y a poca gente le interesa publicarla. En cambio, para hacer propaganda con una encuesta no tienes que pagar mucho, es un servicio barato.
“Lo que está circulando, entonces, es muchísima mala información: encuestas hechas online o vía telefónica. Con esas encuestas de propaganda estamos en uno de los peores momentos de la industria, si no es que el peor en términos de la mala información que se está generando.
“Cuando quieres información para publicidad, no necesitas una buena medición que sí requieres para tomar tus decisiones. Hacia fuera, una parte de la clase política está pagando para que les hagan propaganda con mediciones que ojalá existieran todas. Muchas de esas mediciones que se publican y dan favorito o seguro ganador a un candidato, van en contra de la tendencia que tenemos en las encuestas cara a cara.
“Se está invirtiendo mucho en propaganda y para hacer propaganda no tienes que pagar caro. Las mediciones cara a cara son más costosas y suelen ser sólo de consumo interno”, considera Abundis.
 
MEDIOS AUSENTES

Acaso ‘la culpa la tenemos los medios’, apunta Zuckerman, obligados como están a no publicar encuestas de propaganda hechas vía telefónica con robopolls o en internet. Están faltando en los medios esas ‘mediciones neutrales’ que realmente nos muestren una fotografía del momento, con base en encuestas cara a cara y en vivienda.
“Es cierto –confirma Jorge Buendía–, y aquí la pregunta es por qué los medios no están publicando tantas encuestas como lo habían hecho en procesos anteriores.
“La crisis financiera por la que atraviesan muchos medios de comunicación, ciertamente ha limitado el financiamiento de este tipo de estudios.
“A eso le añadiría un tema que tiene que ver con la dinámica de la competencia electoral: en la medida que hay contiendas más competidas, se despierta mayor interés y también los deseos de los medios de dar la noticia.
“No es fortuito que Nuevo León sea el estado donde más encuestas públicas en vivienda se han dado a conocer. Al ser una contienda abierta, eso ha despertado el interés de la población”, resume Buendía.
 
OPINIÓN ESTABLE

Abundis ha realizado una serie de encuestas mensuales que muestra claramente cuál ha sido la tendencia a lo largo del tiempo, y los resultados son bastante consistentes. Estas encuestas cara a cara, en vivienda y levantadas con mayor frecuencia, “es una buena forma de contar esta historia y no deben sorprendernos mucho los niveles de preferencia que tiene Morena”.
“Si las registramos en el tiempo, prácticamente en la mayor parte de las encuestas postpandemia de agosto a la fecha, salvo alguna excepción, en todas está Morena entre 40 y 43 puntos” en los porcentajes de preferencias electorales para diputados federales.
Lo que Parametría y otros de sus colegas han medido es una opinión pública si no “cristalizada”, sí “una opinión pública que se ha sostenido con el tiempo”. En todo caso, habrá “cambios en el margen”.
En acuerdo a la última medición, “tenemos a Morena con 43 y vemos a sus dos aliados, el Partido del Trabajo, con seis, y el Partido Verde con ocho. Por el otro lado estaría el PAN con 15 puntos; PRI, con 16, y el PRD con cuatro. El otro partido que creo que puede tener un buen día el 6 de junio es Movimiento Ciudadano”.
“Si se suman como coalición Sí por México, PRI, PAN y PRD tendrían 35 puntos. Y del otro lado, la 4T tendría 56 y décimas, casi 57. En el agregado parece una gran ventaja de Morena, pero si lo vemos estado por estado y lo empiezas a separar entre aquellos distritos que tienen las dos alianzas o una sola alianza, los números se empiezan a mover mucho ya sea en Sí por México o en Juntos hacemos historia.”
La segunda parte de esta historia que se pone cada vez más interesante es la estimación del Congreso de la Unión. “Como nunca, va a depender de decisiones judiciales y no necesariamente de una buena medición o del modelo demoscópico. Un poco por la batalla que empezó el 19 de marzo y no acabará hasta que concluya el proceso”.
Francisco Abundis se refiere a las nuevas reglas que impuso el Instituto Nacional Electoral para evitar una sobrerrepresentación más allá del 8 por ciento que actualmente ordena la ley, reglas que serán ratificadas o no por el Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación.
 
NO HAY TENDENCIA

La medición de Buendía & Márquez también muestra estabilidad. “En nuestra última encuesta pública teníamos 44 por ciento para Morena. En datos brutos: 16 por ciento para Acción Nacional, 13 por ciento para el PRI y ya después tenemos al Verde. Pero realmente hay mucha estabilidad, la tendencia es que no hay tendencia. Desde finales del año pasado, los números han estado muy estables, se han movido muy poco. Y aquí la pregunta es a qué se debe esto”.
“En cambio, las elecciones locales, las de gobernador particularmente, sí están cambiando mucho. Parte de la explicación es que las elecciones de diputados federales no son elecciones de candidatos, son más elecciones de partido y de ahí la estabilidad. Por el otro lado, en las elecciones de gobernador y las de alcalde también naturalmente los candidatos son muy importantes.
“La pregunta es si están relacionadas unas con otras, es decir, si a partir de lo que ocurre en una contienda para gobernador o para alcalde podemos inferir resultados a nivel federal. Y la respuesta corta es no. Sería más bien excepcional un efecto de arrastre de la elección de gobernador hacia los comicios federales.
“De hecho, ya en 2018, con López Obrador en la boleta observamos un voto dividido de gran magnitud. El voto por Morena disminuye entre más local es la elección. Hay brechas grandísimas de votos entre lo que recibió Andrés Manuel López Obrador y lo que sacó Morena en las elecciones de gobernador en Chiapas o en Morelos, por nombrar sólo algunas.
“Entonces, aunque tenemos que hacer la distinción entre lo local y lo federal, sí hay mucha estabilidad en los números”, resume Jorge Buendía.
 
CRECE DONDE ES DÉBIL

Las encuestas de BGC, dice Ulises Beltrán, “traen lo mismo que todas” las demás. En coincidencia con sus colegas, señala que “Morena sola tiene 34 por ciento en cifra bruta. Una vez que se alían Partido Verde que trae cinco puntos y PT que trae otros cinco, ya en cifra efectiva tenemos 55 por ciento de preferencias de la coalición Morena-PT-Verde, frente a 37 por ciento de la coalición PRI-PAN-PRD.
“Es muy interesante que donde más crece Morena es en los distritos donde tenía menor fuerza en 2018: crece 10 puntos con respecto a la elección pasada en este conjunto de distritos. En donde tiene una fuerza intermedia, crece siete puntos. Y donde tiene mayor fuerza crece apenas cinco por ciento. Crece por todos lados, pero lo más importante para ellos es que donde tiene menor fuerza, comparado con 2018, es donde le va mejor.
“Las cifras de preferencias nacionales, en este caso tratándose de una elección de diputados federales, indican muy poco o no significan mucho. Lo relevante es cómo se traslada esto a asientos posibles en la próxima Cámara de Diputados. Tanto Jorge Buendía y Javier Márquez como nosotros hemos hecho algunas estimaciones interesantes al respecto”, apunta Beltrán.
 
MODERNO ORÁCULO

El modelo de Oraculus elaborado por Javier Márquez permite hacer una encuesta de las encuestas. Pero aun con ese instrumento no es fácil tratar de predecir la Cámara con base en encuestas nacionales, por el sistema electoral que tenemos, explica Zuckerman.
La Diputación federal está compuesta por 300 representantes de distritos uninominales y 200 miembros electos por el principio de representación proporcional, divididos en cinco regiones o circunscripciones. En ese sentido, dado que todas las encuestas nacionales muestran una tendencia estable y coinciden en sus números, Morena y sus aliados tienen una probabilidad de más del 92 por ciento de quedarse con la mayoría simple, es decir, 251 diputados que les darían la posibilidad de reformar leyes y pasar el presupuesto anual, señala el conductor.
Abundis subraya que una manera de estimar la composición de la Cámara es, simplemente, comparar las coaliciones actuales con los resultados de 2018: ¿cuántos distritos ganó Morena en ese entonces?, ¿cuántos el PT y cuántos el Partido Verde?
Obtuvieron alrededor del 60 por ciento de la Diputación: “302 de las 500 curules, si no me falla la memoria. Entonces, aun con los resultados de 2018, esta nueva coalición del Verde, el PT y Morena tendría 60 por ciento de las curules”.
“Ahora, no estamos en 2018. Lo que nos muestran las encuestas y Ulises Beltrán hacía una referencia a ello, es que hay un swing a favor de Morena a nivel nacional. Si sacó el 37 por ciento de los votos en la elección de 2018 para diputados, hoy todas las encuestas del promedio de Oraculus le dan 44 por ciento. Es decir, Morena trae a nivel nacional un más siete.
“Todo esto indica que los números van a ser más favorables que los que tuvieron hace tres años. Más allá de cómo se hagan los modelos, estos simples números reflejan que, si tomamos como base los resultados de 2018, el año 2021 va a ser más favorable para ellos y sus aliados en términos de integración de la Cámara”, concluye Francisco Abundis.
 
ENCUESTA DE ENCUESTAS

El director de Parametría siempre ha sido muy escéptico de esos modelos predictivos con base en encuestas nacionales, tipo Oraculus y sus gráficas de pool of polls que reúnen, desde 2015, todos los datos de las encuestas en vivienda, reconoce Zuckerman:
Para Abundis, “se pueden hacer [esas encuestas de encuestas] ciertamente tomando en cuenta los antecedentes, es decir, de dónde viene cada partido”.
Por ejemplo, “en las mediciones que tenemos del PT, alrededor de seis puntos respecto a su antecedente de cuatro puntos no es un cambio sustancial. Al Verde que en 2018 obtuvo 4.7, casi cinco puntos, ahora lo tenemos en siete u ocho puntos; y ese tampoco es un cambio tan importante. Y para Morena que tuvo 37, hoy día su porcentaje se parece al que obtuvo en la elección presidencial”.
“Estos cambios no son tan descabellados, pero lo cierto es que todos favorecen a la coalición de Morena. Y, por eso, me parece que en cualquier modelo que como éste finalmente asume condiciones, la determinante más importante es cómo quedará el tema de la sobrerrepresentación.
“Yendo a 2018 otra vez, Morena casi no tuvo sobrerrepresentación porque sus candidatos prácticamente entraron a su bancada a través de otros partidos: el PES y el PT. Ya en la Cámara conformaron una gran bancada.
“En 2018 la pregunta ya no era quién ganaba sino si el ganador tendría mayoría absoluta o no, es decir si iba por arriba del 50 por ciento. Hoy día la pregunta ya no es tampoco si tiene mayoría simple, porque la mayoría simple la podría tener incluso Morena solo en un buen día.”
La discusión va a empezar a darse con base en otra pregunta, sintetiza Abundis, y la formula en los siguientes términos: desde esa mayoría simple que son 251 diputados, para llegar a los dos tercios que son 334 ¿la sobrerrepresentación le alcanza a Morena junto con sus dos aliados, para cubrir esa distancia de 83 diputados y llegar o acercarse a la mayoría calificada?
En la segunda parte de esta mesa de encuestadores, que publicaremos en una siguiente entrega de esta columna, se despejará la incógnita.

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  959. Understanding COSC Certification and Its Importance in Watchmaking
    COSC Certification and its Stringent Criteria
    Controle Officiel Suisse des Chronometres, or the Controle Officiel Suisse des Chronometres, is the authorized Swiss testing agency that attests to the precision and accuracy of wristwatches. COSC validation is a sign of excellent craftsmanship and dependability in timekeeping. Not all timepiece brands follow COSC validation, such as Hublot, which instead sticks to its proprietary strict standards with movements like the UNICO calibre, achieving equivalent precision.

    The Science of Exact Timekeeping
    The core system of a mechanized watch involves the mainspring, which supplies power as it loosens. This system, however, can be vulnerable to environmental elements that may impact its precision. COSC-accredited movements undergo demanding testing—over fifteen days in various conditions (5 positions, three temperatures)—to ensure their resilience and dependability. The tests measure:

    Typical daily rate precision between -4 and +6 secs.
    Mean variation, maximum variation rates, and impacts of temperature variations.
    Why COSC Validation Is Important
    For timepiece enthusiasts and connoisseurs, a COSC-validated timepiece isn’t just a piece of tech but a proof to enduring quality and accuracy. It symbolizes a timepiece that:

    Provides excellent dependability and accuracy.
    Provides guarantee of quality across the complete design of the timepiece.
    Is probable to retain its worth more efficiently, making it a smart choice.
    Famous Chronometer Manufacturers
    Several well-known manufacturers prioritize COSC validation for their watches, including Rolex, Omega, Breitling, and Longines, among others. Longines, for instance, presents collections like the Archive and Spirit, which showcase COSC-certified mechanisms equipped with innovative materials like silicon balance suspensions to boost resilience and efficiency.

    Historical Context and the Evolution of Timepieces
    The concept of the timepiece originates back to the need for accurate timekeeping for navigation at sea, highlighted by John Harrison’s work in the 18th cent. Since the formal foundation of Controle Officiel Suisse des Chronometres in 1973, the certification has become a standard for judging the precision of luxury timepieces, maintaining a tradition of superiority in watchmaking.

    Conclusion
    Owning a COSC-accredited timepiece is more than an aesthetic choice; it’s a commitment to excellence and precision. For those valuing precision above all, the COSC certification provides peacefulness of mind, ensuring that each certified watch will function reliably under various conditions. Whether for personal contentment or as an investment decision, COSC-accredited watches stand out in the world of watchmaking, carrying on a legacy of precise chronometry.

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